Base todayBare or trace
under 3 in at Paradise · 1 mi · 5,150 ft · read 11 Nov
The next 6 weeks
Each week against its own normal. Models initialized 7 Nov.
| Weekly score | Base depth | Snowfall? | Temp. vs normal |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7–13 NovPoor bet?+3.4 °C vs normal | Well below normal0 in · normally 7 in | Much less than usual | +3.4 °C |
| 14–20 NovPoor bet?+2.1 °C vs normal | Well below normal4 in · normally 15 in | Less than usual | +2.1 °C |
| 21–27 NovPoor bet?+1.2 °C vs normal | Well below normal8 in · normally 24 in | Less than usual | +1.2 °C |
| 28 Nov – 4 DecPoor bet?+1.7 °C vs normal | Well below normal15 in · normally 31 in | Less than usual | +1.7 °C |
| 5–11 DecPoor bet?+1.4 °C vs normal | Well below normal21 in · normally 44 in | Near normal | +1.4 °C |
| 12–18 DecPoor bet?+1.7 °C vs normal | Well below normal30 in · normally 51 in | Less than usual | +1.7 °C |
Season outlook
Expected base depth each month vs. normal, from models initialized November 2026.
Monthly score
November
Poor bet
10 in expected · normally 16 in · 22nd percentile
December
Poor bet
39 in expected · normally 59 in · 20th percentile
January
Marginal
71 in expected · normally 92 in · 16th percentile
February
Marginal
92 in expected · normally 124 in · 14th percentile
March
Solid
118 in expected · normally 156 in · 14th percentile
April
Solid
126 in expected · normally 160 in · 18th percentile
Base depth outlook
The chance this month's base is below, near or above this mountain's normal.
November
Well below normal
67% below26%
Base depth odds: 67% below · 26% near · 7% above normal
December
Well below normal
77% below17%
Base depth odds: 77% below · 17% near · 6% above normal
January
Well below normal
78% below16%
Base depth odds: 78% below · 16% near · 6% above normal
February
Well below normal
82% below13%
Base depth odds: 82% below · 13% near · 6% above normal
March
Well below normal
83% below11%
Base depth odds: 83% below · 11% near · 5% above normal
April
Well below normal
80% below14%
Base depth odds: 80% below · 14% near · 6% above normal
Snow station
The base and the outlook for this route come from the Paradise station, 250 ft below the trailhead. A station below the trailhead reads low and melts out early, so the snow here is usually deeper and lasts longer.
The place
- TypeBackcountry route
- AreaMount Rainier
- Elevation5,400 ft to 10,188 ft
Before you go
The forecast and score here cover snow, sun and rain at the lot and on the snowfield above it. They leave out avalanche hazard, wind, finding your way in cloud, and whether the road is open. Check the avalanche forecast and the road status before you go.